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Post Info TOPIC: Episode 17
Forsh


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Episode 17
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Well someone had to start an Episode 17 thread!  furious

 

I don't know what date it will be but I'll put a shilling on and say Good Friday! and with Episode 17 coming out it will make it a VERY Good Friday!

biggrin



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andsetinn


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I am hoping for an earlier release. For fun I charted the release dates but I came to the conclusion that you are probably close to the correct date.

Episode 01 = 2013-08-17 = Day 0
Episode 02 = 2013-10-18 = Day 62 - Difference = 62 Days
Episode 03 = 2013-12-24 = Day 129 - Difference = 67 Days
Episode 04 = 2014-02-19 = Day 186 - Difference = 57 Days
Episode 05 = 2014-04-19 = Day 245 - Difference = 59 Days
Episode 06 = 2014-06-13 = Day 300 - Difference = 55 Days
Episode 07 = 2014-09-26 = Day 405 - Difference = 105 Days
Episode 08 = 2014-12-24 = Day 494 - Difference = 89 Days
Episode 09 = 2015-04-17 = Day 608 - Difference = 114 Days
Episode 10 = 2015-07-31 = Day 713 - Difference = 105 Days
Episode 11 = 2015-12-04 = Day 839 - Difference = 126 Days
Episode 12 = 2016-04-08 = Day 965 - Difference = 126 Days
Episode 13 = 2016-07-22 = Day 1070 - Difference = 105 Days
Episode 14 = 2016-11-25 = Day 1196 - Difference = 126 Days
Episode 15 = 2017-03-17 = Day 1308 - Difference = 112 Days
Episode 16 = 2017-10-13 = Day 1518 - Difference = 210 Days

If you average the time between release dates (mostly because of the jump after episode 6) you get steadily increasing delay between episodes which says next episode has about 80% chance of being released after roughly 150 days. But if you ignore the jump between episode 15 and 16 it goes to 85% chance of being released after roughly 120 days.

Episode 17 = Estimated 85% Friday February 16th or 80% Friday March 16th.

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edwardrf


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andsetinn wrote:

I am hoping for an earlier release. For fun I charted the release dates but I came to the conclusion that you are probably close to the correct date.

Episode 01 = 2013-08-17 = Day 0
Episode 02 = 2013-10-18 = Day 62 - Difference = 62 Days
Episode 03 = 2013-12-24 = Day 129 - Difference = 67 Days
Episode 04 = 2014-02-19 = Day 186 - Difference = 57 Days
Episode 05 = 2014-04-19 = Day 245 - Difference = 59 Days
Episode 06 = 2014-06-13 = Day 300 - Difference = 55 Days
Episode 07 = 2014-09-26 = Day 405 - Difference = 105 Days
Episode 08 = 2014-12-24 = Day 494 - Difference = 89 Days
Episode 09 = 2015-04-17 = Day 608 - Difference = 114 Days
Episode 10 = 2015-07-31 = Day 713 - Difference = 105 Days
Episode 11 = 2015-12-04 = Day 839 - Difference = 126 Days
Episode 12 = 2016-04-08 = Day 965 - Difference = 126 Days
Episode 13 = 2016-07-22 = Day 1070 - Difference = 105 Days
Episode 14 = 2016-11-25 = Day 1196 - Difference = 126 Days
Episode 15 = 2017-03-17 = Day 1308 - Difference = 112 Days
Episode 16 = 2017-10-13 = Day 1518 - Difference = 210 Days

If you average the time between release dates (mostly because of the jump after episode 6) you get steadily increasing delay between episodes which says next episode has about 80% chance of being released after roughly 150 days. But if you ignore the jump between episode 15 and 16 it goes to 85% chance of being released after roughly 120 days.

Episode 17 = Estimated 85% Friday February 16th or 80% Friday March 16th.

 @addsetinn, thanks for your excellent data, here come some graphs based on your data. Assuming linear correlation, the next episode should be arriving in about 161 days... (I am saddened by this number) and if I ignore the last episode, the estimation is 141 days... I know it is stupid to assume a linear coorelation, but it beats exponential...

Selection_069.png

Selection_070.png



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andsetinn


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I was wondering why your graphs are different. Then I realised I only used last 10 episodes for the trendline, Oops. 

 

Screen Shot 2017-10-15 at 15.00.12 by Andsetinn, on Flickr



-- Edited by andsetinn on Sunday 15th of October 2017 02:59:22 PM

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edwardrf


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@andsetinn, I really hope both of us are wrong and having the next episode tomorrow!!!

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Forsh


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Going to those lengths to work it out, you are both wrong on so many levels! wink

 

biggrin



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Bad Obsession


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WTAF are you doing?

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Arrangemonk


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apparently heuristics

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andsetinn


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Bad Obsession wrote:

WTAF are you doing?

 Haha. 



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GrayRaceCat


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Maybe they need a hobby too?!  

 

  Forsh wrote:

  ----------------------------------------------------------------

"GrayRaceCat: - you need a hobby!"



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GrayRaceCat


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Don't forget there are 8 Sunday holidays and 1 Saturday holiday between now and Jan 1st 2018 that may or may not be observed. ( the guys do have families after all) Potentially adding 2 months for a total of 5 months ( crying as I type this) until ep. 17.


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Forsh


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GrayRaceCat wrote:

Maybe they need a hobby too?!  

 

Amen!

 

smile



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TomChar


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Okay, as an American I understand that English isn't my native language, so would someone please tell me what WTAF means? Fairly certainly I know the "W", "T", and "F", but the "A" has me confused.

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bmwmaniac


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WHAT THE ACTUAL FCUK

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andsetinn


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TomChar wrote:

Okay, as an American I understand that English isn't my native language, so would someone please tell me what WTAF means? Fairly certainly I know the "W", "T", and "F", but the "A" has me confused.

 Judging by the Brits I work with it, English is not their language either. :) But as bmwmaniac has said, a usually stands for "actual".



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GrayRaceCat


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Two countries divided by a "common" language!

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The Chief Smeg


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GrayRaceCat wrote:

Two countries divided by a "common" language!

 Rather like I once heard Glasgow described (by a Scot):

a City divided by two religions - and two divisions...



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Niek


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For those following the BOM team on Twitter: there was mention of "possibly, theoretically solving a major headache on the mini". As we all know this translates to "severe delays" in layman's terms so a 210 day interval may prove optimistic. hmm

BUT! On Patreon, the lads promised they'd do their utmost to get the next episode (being ep. 17) out in a shorter time than it took to complete episode 16. Which kind of renders all the above diagrams, calculations and guesstimates useless. Here's hoping...  smile



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Forsh


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Niek wrote:

Which kind of renders all the above diagrams, calculations and guesstimates useless. Here's hoping...  smile

Useless?  As opposed to what!?!   

biggrin



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andsetinn


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Niek wrote:

Which kind of renders all the above diagrams, calculations and guesstimates useless. Here's hoping...  smile

They are not useless no. These are predictions that are mathematically calculated based on previous release dates. On the other hand, like most predictions, they are very likely wrong, specially if BOM is planing to get next episode out in shorter time period than usual. Here is to earlier than expected release of episode 17 . 



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Forsh


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andsetinn wrote:

They are not useless no...

they are very likely wrong,

 

You say they are not useless but you did, in fact, agree with Niek & me!

 

biggrin

 



-- Edited by Forsh on Thursday 26th of October 2017 07:44:12 AM

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andsetinn


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Forsh wrote:
andsetinn wrote:

They are not useless no...

they are very likely wrong,

 

You say they are not useless but you did, in fact, agree with Niek & me!

 

biggrin


-- Edited by Forsh on Thursday 26th of October 2017 07:44:12 AM

Now don't confuse things. Weather forecasts are often wrong but are hardly useless. 



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Forsh


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Yes but Nick and Richard aren't involved in weather forecasting! (as far as I know)
How can anyone apply probability to those two???

 

 
 

biggrin

 



-- Edited by Forsh on Friday 27th of October 2017 07:40:54 AM

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andsetinn


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Forsh wrote:


How can anyone apply probability to those two???

 You are absolutely right. :D



-- Edited by andsetinn on Saturday 28th of October 2017 09:39:26 PM

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Bad Obsession


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73.6% of all statistics are made up...

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andsetinn


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I thought at least 200% of all statistics were exaggerated.

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Kiwi Paul


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I agree 110%

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gben


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As Will Rogers said "There are Lies, Damn Lies, and STATISTICS !!!!

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I think the project maybe a little over the estimated time frame..

Check out Binky Episode 2  -  7:27 and then the episode release date

On the plus side.. its made the journey longer .... and worth the wait.

 

Building a car from scratch is 1000 times harder than a classic resto..

 

I started last year 26th Nov 2016 and still not half way. I too feel the pain.. 

Squeezing a massive engine swap into a mini - THEN

CUSTOM DASH.. ELECTRICS.. BATTERY... EXHAUST... ENGINEERING CERIFICATION.. EFI.. FUEL PUMP.. COOLING... A/C ... STEERING.. STEERING COLUMN ..  BRAKES.. BOOSTER.. SEATS..  TRIM.. BODY WORK.. PAINT etc etc etc

 

Its an 11 out of 10 for effort... but for a MINI.. worth it.



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Mini_Madness


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January at this rate late january will be some kind of update maybe?

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Niek


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The friendly people at BOM central (aka Nik and Richard) have said to post some outtakes come Christmas. When episode 17 is released, is anyone's guess.
What we do know is that episode 17 will be delayed due to the workshop being up a steep hill, only accessible by a slippery slope that apparently was covered in snow.



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andsetinn


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Niek wrote:

The friendly people at BOM central (aka Nik and Richard) have said to post some outtakes come Christmas. When episode 17 is released, is anyone's guess.
What we do know is that episode 17 will be delayed due to the workshop being up a steep hill, only accessible by a slippery slope that apparently was covered in snow.

Steep hill, slippery slope, covered in show, deep in the forest, or, only accessible through platform 9 3/4? Hmm.

It will be here sooner or later. I am ready to put money on it being no later than 2018. I am hoping to get Ralph in 2017. :D



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Z_Karma


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If they only had access to an AWD vehicle.

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Forsh


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So they think they can get round us and how long we have to wait by posting a load of out-takes do they???

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxJc57T_dwU



Worked a treat!
Crack on guys!
No rush!

biggrin



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gben


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MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL!!!!! and a HAPPY BOXING DAY as well. May Father Christmas bless you all with a multitude of new bits for your Projects !

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"Building a car from scratch is 1000 times harder than a classic resto" This is so true. I'm only building a new design from the ground up engine head from scratch and know the crazy work that goes into stuff like this. I have crazy respect for this project and am very impressed by the progress.

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bobbenoster


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Christmas without new Binky... Terrible! But thanks guys! Every episode has been going so far, can't wait to see the next installment!

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mike-wsm


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Those graphs look much better if plotted on logarithmic graph-paper.

Happy New Year to all!

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gben


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a question on US to UK translation

US UK

elevator lift

lift (car hoist) ramp

LYFT ( like Uber) ?????




HAPPY NEW YEARS

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Forsh


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Lyft = lift

Going out for a beer with the lads I'd ask my wife for a lift into town

or if she'd been to the shops, when she got home I'd give her a lift carrying ALLLL the shopping in

smile






-- Edited by Forsh on Sunday 31st of December 2017 09:41:07 AM



-- Edited by Forsh on Sunday 31st of December 2017 09:43:06 AM

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GrayRaceCat


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gben,

Looks like Lyft (US) = Lyft (UK) see below...

More pain for banned Uber as arch-rival Lyft moves in on London market

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/09/23/uber-arch-rival-lyft-holds-talks-transport-london-plots-global/



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gben


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Thanks GRC now I know. Seems like Uber has the same problems everywhere.

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Mini_Madness


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Ha i was right its late january and here comes the QnA episode

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Mini_Madness


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Question: How much boost pressure?

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mike-wsm


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Calculating expected completion from slip figures is always fraught - the project office at censored (but it had three letters, all close to the start of the alphabet) had some smart maths for predicting slip - when we plugged our slippage figures in it predicted that we would finish the project in minus three years.



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bobbenoster


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Given the stats (and everyone knows the stats don't lie) above and the fact that it has now been 4 months since the last episode... the 161 days estimate is now only about 6 weeks away...

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Niek


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bobbenoster wrote:

Given the stats (and everyone knows the stats don't lie) above and the fact that it has now been 4 months since the last episode... the 161 days estimate is now only about 6 weeks away...

 ...which conveniently coincides with Good Friday as predicted by Forsh at the start of this thread. Sweet.



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Kiwi Paul


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Ep 16 was a good one, and they have done a Q + A vid since then. I just assuaged my Binky-hunger by watching Ep 1-16 in one go. Don't get me wrong, I'm keen to see Ep 17.....

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Forsh


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assuaged - isn't he in the Ecuadorian Embassy?

If you want to pass the time until Ep17 - Has anyone been keeping up with Gordon Murrys Mk1 Escort by Retropower?

smile



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GrayRaceCat


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Yup! Here's a 2 links for those who may be interested.

www.build-threads.com/videos/what-im-watching-gordon-murray-mk1-escort-by-retropower/

www.youtube.com/watch


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